JUSTALPHA

Proven Edge

Every number here is measured over graded calls — never simulated, never back-filled. The platform reports; it never trades. Judge it on the record.

ACROSS EVERY VERTICALp < 0.0001 — astronomically unlikely to be luck
61.4%hit-rate · n = 24,953
SportsPROVEN EDGE
62.9%directional hit-rate
worst-case floor 62.4% (Wilson-90)sample n = 22,497calibration 0.250 Brier
p < 0.0001 — astronomically unlikely to be luck
CryptoUNDERPERFORMING
46.8%directional hit-rate
worst-case floor 44.5% (Wilson-90)sample n = 1,250calibration 0.250 Brier
p = 0.99 — not yet conclusive
Markets (options)BUILDING
48.7%directional hit-rate
worst-case floor 46.3% (Wilson-90)sample n = 1,193calibration 0.253 Brier
p = 0.82 — not yet conclusive
CROSS-BOOK ARBITRAGE EDGES · DETECTEDArbitrage edges the scanner detected across two venues, each as its return on the total stake at the prices quoted when it was found. Detection-only — the platform never places bets, so these are opportunities found, not returns earned.
1,855settled after the game
+1.51%avg return available at detection

HOW WE GRADE

Each call is a directional prediction that resolves the way the model said or it doesn’t — measured against the realized move, not a claim. A vertical is proven only when its Wilson-90% lower bound (the honest worst case) clears a 50% coin flip; the p-value is the chance the record arose by luck if the model had no edge. Verticals with fewer than 20 graded calls are flagged building-sample. Value-betting sources (which win under 50% by design) are scored by profit, not hit-rate, and excluded here.

Directional accuracy over graded calls — did each call resolve the way the model predicted? Bounded [0,100%], unit-clean, comparable across verticals. Hit-rate floor is the Wilson 90% lower bound (honest worst-case); Brier scores how well the calibrated win-prob matches reality (lower is better). A research lens on model quality, not a P&L claim — the platform never trades. Verticals with under 20 decided calls are flagged building-sample.

Measured over the trailing 365 days · updated 10/11/2026, 6:14:51 PM